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Deep dive · Revealed Aug 12

The hidden bet: he was buying a Japanese capacitor maker through the crash

Nine Japanese filings — all dumped at once on Aug 12, over a month past Japan's 5-day deadline — reveal a position no 13F ever showed: Taiyo Yuden (Tokyo: 6976), one of the world's top MLCC makers. The fund rode it from 5.99% of the company to a 16.61% peak in three weeks — then the margin calls hit, and the same filings show it force-sold down to 4.41% by Aug 3. That residual stake — roughly $380M at today's price — still stands, making this one of the few positions that survived the unwind.

Jun 29 · 5.99% Jul 1 · 8.13% Jul 3 · 6.42% trim Jul 15 · 9.47% Jul 16 · 11.62% Jul 22 · 16.61% peak Jul 30 · 15.22% Aug 3 · 4.41% (forced sale)
Why an AI fund owns it
A GB200 board carries ~6,500 MLCCs; next-gen Rubin needs ~12,000 (TrendForce). Goldman calls MLCCs the #3 AI-server cost item after GPUs and memory.
The demand receipts
Aug 5: guidance raised — operating profit ¥30bn → ¥45bn (+125% Y/Y); record capacitor book-to-bill of 1.72; backlog +78% Q/Q. Rivals are hiking MLCC prices (SEMCO +30%, Yageo ~+50%).
The rollercoaster
¥3,167 (Jan low) → ¥24,065 (Jul 1 all-time high) → ~¥10,265 (Aug 12) — down 57% from the peak, still 3.2x January. The fund was buying near the top.
The honest warts
Still ~45–48x forward earnings (>100x at the peak). And the AI-grade high-capacitance segment is a Murata + Samsung EM duopoly (~80%+) — Taiyo Yuden (~10% overall share) is the challenger, not the leader.
The full story — what Taiyo Yuden is, why the stock halved, and what to watch ▾

What it makes: multilayer ceramic capacitors — the rice-grain-sized parts that smooth power into every chip. ~71% of its ¥355bn FY3/2026 revenue is capacitors; the rest is inductors and filters. A modern GPU pulls hundreds of watts at ~1 volt with violent microsecond swings, so designers pack banks of high-capacitance MLCCs right at the package — AI servers carry several times the passive content of regular ones. Q1 sales mix: autos 28%, info-infrastructure/industrial (incl. AI servers) 27% and rising, smartphones 20%, IT devices 18%.

Why the stock halved anyway: three legs, none of them an earnings miss — a July 6–10 valuation unwind (the stock had run ~7.6x from January and topped 100x forward earnings), the July 29 Asia-wide AI/memory rout, and July 30–Aug 3, when this fund itself was force-selling ~12% of the company into a falling market. The Aug 5 earnings were actually good — guidance raised on AI-server demand — and the stock still gave back the pop the next day.

What to watch: whether the remaining 4.41% holds (any ≥1% change triggers a Japanese filing within ~5 business days); whether capacitor pricing keeps firming (Taiyo Yuden reprices Sep 1); and whether the >10% operating-margin promise from Q2 materializes. The risk to the whole thesis: MLCC demand is a derivative of AI capex — if the buildout slows, the #3 line item on the bill of materials slows with it. New capacity takes 18–24 months to build, which protects pricing now but adds supply into 2028.

Sources: EDINET large-shareholding filings (Aug 12), Taiyo Yuden Q1 FY3/2027 results deck (Aug 5), TrendForce, company IR. The ~$380M residual figure = 4.41% of the ¥1.39T market cap at ¥159/USD — our arithmetic, not a filing figure. Not investment advice.

⚠️
July 30: the fund was forced to sell its public book — the holdings below are the June 30 book he took into it, not what is left

What happened: after July's AI crash, margin calls from the fund's lending banks (Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan — per CNBC, Reuters and Bloomberg) forced Situational Awareness to unwind the bulk of its public stock positions. Citadel — Ken Griffin's hedge fund — bought the bulk in a single block trade reported at over $10B (WSJ first; Millennium and Jane Street reportedly bid too). Per an Aug 4 SEC filing, at least one position — Core Scientific — passed through the sale: the fund sold half of it (~$225M) in Aug 3 block trades and still holds 4.4%. Per Reuters (Aug 14), Jane Street was not just a bidder for the block — it was an investor in the fund, and took a July loss of roughly $15B partly tied to that stake, its first losing month since 2016 (Fortune, Aug 15: a Jane Street partner said the stake is “flat on the year, still up over the life of the bet”).

Rumor check: Citadel didn't "liquidate" the fund — the banks' margin calls forced the sale; Citadel was the buyer, which ended the forced selling. And how a fund this hedged got margin-called: per Business Insider the losses ran two-sided — the AI longs collapsed while its software shorts and semiconductor hedges also moved against it.

Where the book went (Aug 21): per Ken Griffin's first client letter on the deal (CNBC), Citadel has already unwound more than 80% of the risk it bought — via 100+ block trades totaling over $4B in market value, including single-session record blocks in 10 separate stocks. Citadel was a fast intermediary, not a long-term holder.

What remains: the fund is not dead — roughly $10B, including its unsold Anthropic stake (FT-valued around $5B), and it reportedly keeps trading. Size arc, as reported: ~$45B peak in early July → ~$20–24B at the sale → ~$10B after. July closed down −67%; the investor letter (via Bloomberg) put it plainly: "We took the steps that were necessary to fight another day." On Aug 4 came the first post-crisis move — a $400M investment in an undisclosed private company, on top of a $100M stake bought the prior month (~$500M total; Bloomberg, which lists Anthropic, Fluidstack and MatX among the retained private stakes). Aschenbrenner — up 439% net through June — had invited fresh capital from Aug 1 (July 24 letter, via the FT), but the raise did not materialize as hoped: per Bloomberg (Aug 7), despite a surge of inbound investor interest, the fund has told investors it is not accepting new capital for now.

Newly surfaced (Aug 12): Japanese filings revealed a position 13Fs never showed — Taiyo Yuden, bought up to 16.61% of the company pre-crisis, force-sold to 4.41% through the unwind, and still held at that level. Full breakdown in the green panel above.

What to watch: the Q2 13F (filed Aug 14) is now below — it is the June 30 book, before the sale, so it shows what he was holding when the margin calls hit, not what survived; further 13D/G amendments will show what did (the Aug 4 Core Scientific 13D/A was the first proof); any Japanese 変更報告書 on Taiyo Yuden (a ≥1% change triggers one within ~5 business days); and SharonAI — the resale registration went effective Aug 14 (424B3) and a 13G/A the same day reaffirms 19.9%: the gate is open, watch the Form 4s. The next 13F (Q3, ~Nov 14) is the first post-sale snapshot. The rows below are the June 30 book — history now, not holdings.

Q2 2026 13F · filed Aug 14 · ⚠ this is the June 30 book — what he held when the margin calls hit; the bulk was force-sold Jul 30 (see the notice above). Not current holdings

Leopold dropped every hedge and went 5x long into July — memory, power, neoclouds. Then the margin calls hit.

The June 30 book was $20.24B+48% QoQ — but the mix flipped: Q1's $8.46B of puts on Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, Oracle and the SMH ETF were all closed by quarter-end, and long common went from ~$3.9B to ~$20.2B (5x). 55% of it sat in two memory names — SanDisk and Micron — which then fell 47% and 29% in July (Bloomberg). Hedged in March, naked in June, margin-called in July: this is that book.

Manager: Leopold Aschenbrenner (ex-OpenAI) 26 positions (was 42) 20 full exits — all 10 put lines, 3 call lines, 7 small commons NEW: STMicro $584M · Vishay $20M · Cerebras $2M Top 10 = ~92% of book · memory (SNDK+MU) 55% ~$45B peak → ~$10B after the Jul 30 forced sale (incl. Anthropic, FT ~$5B)
Reported book (Jun 30 · sold Jul 30)
$20.24B
+48% vs Q1 2026 (Mar 31: $13.68B)
Bearish puts (Jun 30)
$5M
0.03% of book · 1 name (Infosys) — was $8.46B / 11 names
Long equity (Jun 30)
$20.17B
23 names · 55% memory, then power, neoclouds, miners
Bullish calls (Jun 30)
$68M
2 names · BE, TSM — cut 64% / 95% in Q2
The barbell, visualized — and gone
Share of the $20.24B June 30 book as filed (bulk force-sold Jul 30)
Memory longs 55.6%
Other longs 44.0%
Note: this is notional exposure as reported on the 13F. The Q1 barbell (35% longs / 10% calls / 55% puts) is gone: on June 30 the book was 99.6% long common, with a 0.3% call sliver (BE, TSM — the thin dark-green strip) and a put line too thin to see (Infosys, 0.03% — the red hairline). Directionally this is a one-sided long AI-hardware book — which is why July's crash could margin-call it.

The thesis, in plain English

The long side · "Sell shovels & substations"

AI compute requires gigawatts of continuous power. By June 30 Leopold was long the unsexy backbone — and, above all, memory (the book as filed Jun 30 — force-sold July 30): SanDisk and Micron (55% of the book, common shares now, not calls), Bloom Energy (on-site fuel cells), TSMC and new STMicro, and neoclouds and miners pivoting to GPU hosting (Nebius, CoreWeave, Core Scientific, Applied Digital, Riot, IREN, CleanSpark). Thesis: the bottleneck is physical, not algorithmic.

The short side · the insurance was cancelled

In March the puts targeted names where consensus multiples had run too far: Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, ASML, Oracle, TSM and the broader SMH ETF — $8.46B notional. By June 30 every one of them was closed; the only put left was $5M on Infosys. The bet was no longer these stocks have priced in too much — it was one-way long. That is how a fund that looked hedged in May could be margin-called in July: when AI hardware fell, there was nothing on the other side.

Quote-level commentary from coverage of the filing. See sources.

Every position — the June 30 book

What he held when the margin calls hit (Q2 13F, filed Aug 14). The bulk was force-sold Jul 30 — read these as history, not current holdings. Filter, sort, star.
Ticker Company Type Value % book Shares / Contracts Status Why it's there

What changed this quarter

The headline: he dropped every hedge and went 5x long into July. Q2-filing deltas (Mar 31 → Jun 30) — the last snapshot before the July 30 forced sale.
New
Brand-new positions
    Sold
    Fully exited
      Added
      Increased
        Reduced
        Trimmed

          Your watchlist

          Click the ★ next to any position to track it here. Saved in your browser only — nothing leaves this page.

          Before you copy a single trade — read this

          It's 45+ days late
          13Fs are filed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Prices and positions have already moved.
          It's a slice, not the whole fund
          13Fs only show long US equity positions and listed options. Foreign holdings, cash, swaps, and direct shorts are invisible — and so is the fund's reported largest position: private Anthropic stock (WSJ, Jun 8 2026 — bought Feb 2025 at a ~$60B valuation; ~20% of fund assets as of that pre-sale report — after the July 30 sale it's roughly half of what remains). This page is the public slice, not the whole fund.
          Notional ≠ capital
          Q1's "$8.5B put position" was strike × contracts × 100; the premium paid (the real risk) was a small fraction. By June 30 the puts were gone anyway — and the $20B long book, unlike put notional, was real money on margin.
          You aren't a hedge fund
          He can hold puts to expiration, accept drawdowns, and rebalance daily. Copy-trading a hedger without the hedges is just leverage. (And July 30 showed even he couldn't ride it out — his lending banks decided for him.)

          Sources & how to update this page

          Data on this page is from the Q2 2026 13F-HR (period ending 6/30/2026, filed 8/14/2026, accession 0000935836-26-000418); quarter-on-quarter deltas compare against the Q1 filing (3/31/2026, accession 0002045724-26-000008). Post-filing context: Bloomberg and CNBC (Aug 14) on the filing, Reuters (Aug 14) and Fortune (Aug 15) on Jane Street, SharonAI's 13G/A and 424B3 (Aug 14). Verify and refresh from:

          To update: edit the inline DATA array in this file when the next 13F drops — roughly mid-November 2026 for Q3 2026, the first snapshot after the July 30 sale.

          Not investment advice. Not affiliated with Situational Awareness LP, Leopold Aschenbrenner, WhaleWisdom, or any other party. Data may contain errors — always verify against the primary SEC filing before acting on it.